Two things are as clear as a smog-free sky: Oil and gas companies no longer deny human-driven climate change is real, but they insist the transition away from planet-warming fossil fuels will take many years, given the immense number of gasoline cars on the road.
The role the industry plays in the clean energy transition was the overarching theme of a Santa Fe energy summit the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce hosted Wednesday.
Top-ranking oil executives and industry advocates talked about the strides that companies such as Chevron, Shell and ConocoPhillips are making to reduce carbon emissions to combat climate change, mainly through investment and research in improved technologies and cleaner fuels.
Although they referred to New Mexico only in passing, the state is clearly in the middle of the clean energy transition. New Mexico has the country’s second-highest oil production, generating roughly 40% of its state tax revenue, and is at the forefront in enacting rules to reduce carbon emissions and bolster the changeover to electric vehicles.
Executives acknowledged the shift toward EVs and renewables is inevitable and necessary, but argue as a practical matter it will take longer than environmentalists and clean energy advocates would like.
“A lot of people have simplified it, but the reality is the energy transition is going to be long, it’s going to be complex, it’s going to take time,” said Karl Fennessy, vice president of corporate policy for ConocoPhillips.
Electrifying cars won’t eliminate the demand for oil, Fennessey said. EVs travel on roads, require tires and have plastic parts, all of which are made with materials tied to fossil fuels, he said.
“What that means is we’ll be around a long time,” he said, “and we need to figure out how to work together.”
A Toyota executive echoed his sentiment, noting there are 1.4 billion gasoline cars worldwide, with many owners not eager to switch to EVs.
“Maybe the future is now, but the future will take a little time to evolve,” said Tom Stricker, group vice president for Toyota North America.
Mining the minerals to produce EV batteries is not a simple undertaking, and building enough charging stations and other infrastructure takes time, Stricker said.
Still, Toyota is developing lines of EVs with the goal of moving beyond the wealthy buyers who now make up the bulk of the market, he said. For now, a good option are plug-in hybrids, which use substantially less gasoline and are more affordable.
Climate advocates, however, contend the industry is trying to prolong the clean energy transition to save profits, though those tactics could nudge the planet closer to a severe tipping point.
“As long as we’re dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, from burning fossil fuels or for any other process, we’re going to be warming the climate,” said Andy Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University. “Then when we stop dumping carbon in the atmosphere, the climate will stabilize pretty quickly thereafter.”
Dessler said the technology is available today to largely transition from fossil fuels.
“There’s a lot of misinformation going around,” Dessler said. “A lot of people are trying to stop the transition because it’s bad for them personally, even though it’s good for society.”
Scientists, including at NASA, note that once the planet surpasses an average temperature, it’s irreversible. After that, all anyone can do is prevent climate change and its effects from worsening.
In a recent report, a U.N. intergovernmental panel found the planet is moving toward 1.5 degrees Celsius — or roughly 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit — of warming over the preindustrial era faster than anticipated and could reach that point by the mid-2030s.
If that threshold is crossed, the effects will escalate, with more severe storms, droughts, flooding and species going extinct, the report said.
Several speakers at the conference insisted they are genuinely concerned about climate change and are working to make their products more environmentally friendly.
Transportation accounts for about 28% of carbon emissions, a huge amount that can be reduced through electrification and lower-carbon fuels, said Claudia Graham, Chevron’s general manager of strategies, planning and new energies.
“We believe the future is lower carbon, and we’re committed to making that future a reality,” Graham said.
Forming partnerships to tackle energy-transition challenges is paramount, she said, because no company can solve all the problems alone. Chevron, for example, has teamed with Toyota to devise more energy-efficient vehicles, said Graham, who shared the stage with Toyota’s Stricker.
“What it enables is innovation,” Graham said.
Shell USA President Gretchen Watkins said the transition is not simply moving from one point to another in a straightforward path, but rather dealing with disruptions and obstacles.
“I think we’re going to … see some volatility as we transition,” Watkins said. “As a society, as a world, I think we can have a successful transition, but it won’t be easy.”
Watkins said a country like the U.S. must have energy security — a reliable supply of affordable energy — before it can decarbonize. An effective energy transition will require industry, the government and consumers to collaborate, she said.
A few executives mentioned hydrogen and carbon capture as other ways to reduce greenhouse gases. Many conservationists dismiss them as false climate solutions.
One such critic is Camilla Feibelman, director of the Sierra Club’s Rio Grande Chapter.
New Mexico is ground zero for climate change, with prolonged droughts, severe wildfires and an invasive breed of mosquito that’s now flourishing here, Feibelman said, adding “that’s what climate change looks like.”
The state leads much of the country in emissions-reducing rules, electrification and making homes and public buildings more energy efficient, she said.
“We need to industry to cut the greenwashing and the attempts to walk good policy back, and join the rest of us in saving the planet for our kids and their kids,” she said.
