As Sen. Greg Baca, R-Belen, watched the Democrat-
controlled state Senate push forward bills the GOP opposed during the recently completed 30-day legislative session, he muttered a mantra — or maybe a hope — about the long-term outcome.
“It’s an election year,” Baca said several times — noting how votes in January and February had the potential to haunt Democrats on Election Day in November.
Although some Democrats were anguished by their limited success in pushing their agenda over the past four weeks, Republicans like Baca believe those who advocated for gun-safety measures or did not do enough to push “tough on crime” initiatives could get the electoral boot.
Don’t bet on it, counter political experts who say that in a state where incumbents win reelection 95% of the time, the likelihood of massive changes based on the outcome of one session is slim.
“Those who are paying close enough attention to whatever is going on at the local, state or federal level when it comes to legislative productivity — things that were passed or not passed — are generally the voters who already have their minds made up about particular candidates or party,” said Michael S. Rocca, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Mexico.
“Which means, regardless of what is going on [in the session] has very little effect on voters,” he added.
Some political observers criticized lawmakers for getting little accomplished during the session. But Albuquerque pollster and political analyst Brian Sanderoff said that really doesn’t matter to most voters.
“The average voter,” he said, “does not pay attention to the daily activities of the Legislature.”
That does not mean candidates — be they incumbents or challengers — who choose to declare their candidacy by the state’s March 12 deadline will not promote their legislative accomplishments or attack their opponents for a particular vote, he said.
Political mailers and flyers might “cherry-pick particular votes of a specific legislator in an effort to portray them as soft on crime, for example, or as someone who voted to create a new gas tax or whatever,” Sanderoff said.
There have been times when a long-term track record causes trouble for incumbents. In 2020, a progressive coalition successfully worked to unseat several conservative-leaning Democratic senators who voted against repealing the state’s old anti-abortion law and contested efforts to tap more of the state’s Land Grant Permanent Fund for early childhood education initiatives.
Those senators went down during a primary election, when state lawmakers are more vulnerable.
“On hot-button issues, it can impact the way people vote specifically in the primaries,” said Dick Mason of the League of Women Voters of New Mexico.
Mason referred to 11 House Democrats who joined 25 Republicans in voting down the paid family and medical leave initiative, one of the most dramatic moments of the session.
The measure went down 36-34, surprising many observers who believed the legislation would easily pass.
Rocca said Democrats who voted against the paid family leave proposal probably thought to themselves: “I can survive that.”
“Chances are they went into that vote with some sort of understanding of what that vote would mean and if they could withstand it,” he said. “They are really good at making those predictions.”
Most state lawmakers understand their constituents and generally vote in tandem with their wishes. On the whole, pleasing their own constituents “ensures their reelection,” Rocca said.
“They represent their district, not the state,” he added.
Outgoing Albuquerque Sen. Mark Moores, a Republican, said “New Mexico is a small state where legislators are accessible,” which helps lawmakers bond with constituents.
“I’ve never turned down an offer to have a cup of coffee with a constituent,” he said.
Jerry Ortiz y Pino, D-Albuquerque, said it’s that kind of personal interaction that often carries the day, more than any single vote in any single session.
“It doesn’t always come down to how you vote on a bill,” he said. “They get into a habit of voting for you.”
Ortiz y Pino, who is retiring, noted he ran unopposed at least three times and said it’s the little things — like returning a constituent’s phone call — that can make all the difference.
“There are so many other things — ‘He helped my son get into New Mexico Military Institute’ — the personal things,” he said. “That’s what people remember on Election Day.”
